Since the NFL’s Super Bowl is the biggest single-day betting event of the year, online sportsbooks go all out when it comes to expanding the ways you can bet on this game. You have alternative lines to bet the spread and total, lines by quarter and half, live-in game betting options and hundreds of different prop bet options covering every possible aspect of the Super Bowl both on and off the field.
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Standard handicapping practices still apply to breaking down the actual matchup. However, putting some extra weight on recent betting trends does make sense in a game this big. This Sunday’s showdown between the AFC’s Kansas City Chiefs and the NFC’s San Francisco 49ers offers a comprehensive set of betting trends that help to paint a picture of how this game actually plays out.
Given the sheer amount of betting volume and betting options, the starting point for betting a game this big is to figure out how you see things playing out. Everything and anything you want to know about either team is already out there. By the time the weekend of the Super Bowl LIV rolls around, the media hype is already over the top.
You need to block out all of the outside distractions and script your own scenario for this game. Stick to your guns and bet accordingly. Yet, do not be afraid to place a few hedge bets in case that scenario suddenly goes off the rails when the game finally gets underway at 6:30 p.m. (ET) Sunday night.
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Kansas City Key Betting Trends
Over their past eight games, the Chiefs are 7-0-1 against the spread. Offense is a key factor with a 5-0 record ATS in their last five games after accumulating 350+ yards in their previous game. That record also holds when the passing game surpasses 250+ yards.
Kansas City has covered in its last four games after posting at least 30 points in its previous outing. It is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games closing as a favorite and 5-0 ATS in its last five games against a team with a SU winning record.
San Francisco Key Betting Trends
The 49ers have a perfect 5-0 record ATS in their last five games closing as underdogs and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a SU winning record.
The ATS record stands at 7-2 ATS in the last nine games San Francisco has allowed fewer than 90 rushing yards. That record slips to 1-4 ATS in the last five games after giving up more than 250 passing yards in the previous outing.
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Betting Trends Analysis
Each of these teams have posted strong betting trends ATS in recent games. The Chiefs cover well as favorites and the 49ers have been a solid bet as underdogs to cancel one another out.
These teams also play to their strengths from a betting standpoint. Kansas City relies on outscoring opposing teams with a high-powered offense. While San Francisco is another team that can puts some points on the board when necessary, it likes to rely on a stronger defensive effort to win its games. This sets up the ultimate chess match between Chiefs’ head coach Andy Reid and the 49ers’ Kyle Shanahan.
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Whichever team has the most success at what it does best should go on to win. If the lean goes towards Kansas City, the OVER on the total becomes much more attractive. If San Francisco’s defense plays to form, this game may turn into a much lower scoring affair than expected.