NFL Free Pick:
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It’s exactly what NFL fans need to close out a Thanksgiving weekend football feast. Defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City travels to Tampa Bay to take on Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.
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The Chiefs actually have some history with the Bucs and it’s not all that good. Patrick Mahomes and company will be looking to improve upon that history.
Game: Kansas City Chiefs (9-1, 6-4 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4, 5-6 ATS)
When: 4:25 PM ET, Sunday, November 29th, 2020
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
America’s Bookie Current Line: KC -3.5 Total: 56
TV Coverage: CBS
Head to Head Stats Historically, Tampa Bay has had the Chiefs number. The two teams don’t play all that often, but the Bucs have won five straight against Kansas City. The Chiefs haven’t beaten Tampa Bay since 1993. In those five games, the Chiefs managed to cover the spread just once.
But, the two teams haven’t played since 2016, a 19-17 Tampa Bay win, and it’s a different era of both Chiefs and Bucs football. Kansas City has one of the most prolific offenses in NFL history led by a future Hall of Fame quarterback in Mahomes.
Chiefs Are Clicking on Offense
The Chiefs offense is so good that over the last four games head coach Andy Reid’s offense is scoring 36.5 points per game. Mahomes is on fire with 3,035 passing yards and 27 touchdowns. If he maintains his pace, the Chiefs quarterback will come close to his 5,000-yard-plus and 50 touchdown season two years ago.
We crushed our last free pick a couple weeks ago, taking the OVER in our Ohio State Buckeyes at Maryland Terrapins betting preview. The Buckeyes scored 73 in that game!
On the other side, the 43-year-old Brady has the Bucs primed for at least a playoff spot. Tampa Bay’s problem is that they have underperformed against elite defenses. They lost twice to NFC South rival New Orleans, and once each to Chicago and the L.A. Rams.
In the team’s other seven games, Brady and the Bucs offense has performed well. What will give them a chance on Sunday afternoon is their own defense, which ranks No. 5 in the NFL in total defense allowing 310.5 yards. The Bucs can pressure the passer and stop the run. Can they stop Kansas City though?
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Can They Keep it Rolling?
Last week against the Raiders with Kansas City trailing 31-28, Mahomes took the Chiefs 75 yards in seven plays using all of just 75 seconds to produce the winning touchdown, a pass to TE Travis Kelce. Whether or not the Chiefs score that quickly against Tampa Bay doesn’t matter all that much. What does matter is Kansas City’s record over its last 19 games. The Chiefs are 18-1 straight up and a bettor-friendly 15-4 ATS.
The Chiefs are also 7-0 SU in their last seven games on the road. With the coronavirus pandemic limiting the number of fans at Raymond James Stadium, home field might not be that big an advantage for the Bucs. Tampa Bay is 3-2 at home this season.
The Bucs should play better than they did a week ago in a loss to the Rams. Better just might not be enough to beat the defending Super Bowl champs.
Chiefs at Buccaneers NFL Free Pick: Chiefs -3.5