Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints Betting Pick
For three games, the New Orleans Saints hadn't missed a beat since the injury to starting quarterback Drew Brees. Then backup Taysom Hill struggled against the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Saints lost, 24-21. With Green Bay's win over Detroit, the Saints fell behind the Packers in the race for the NFC's top seed.
Both teams have 10-3 records, but the Packers beat the Saints 37-30 in Week 3 and hold the tiebreaker. New Orleans still doesn't know if Brees will play in the critical Week 15 matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs are coming off a close 33-27 win over the Miami Dolphins after almost squandering a 30-10 lead. Kansas City held on and, at 12-1, is in sole possession of the best record in the AFC. Pittsburgh's second consecutive loss paved the way for the Chiefs to get the coveted first-round playoff bye.
Chiefs at Saints Betting Lines
Kansas City is a 3.5-point road favorite at online sportsbooks as they head to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Ordinarily, the Saints enjoy a huge home-field advantage, but the lack of spectators renders the edge almost useless.
The moneyline has the Chiefs at -200 and the Saints at +170. The over/under on the game is 51.5 for two teams that combine to score almost 60 points per contest.
The two teams are a combined .500 against the spread, with the Chiefs at 6-7 and the Saints 7-6. Against the over/under, Kansas City stands at 6-7. New Orleans has been more successful at beating the over at 8-5.
The dreaded hook got us the last time we posted a pick here. We had the Chiefs -3.5 vs. the Bucs in a 27-24 KC win. Check it out, Chiefs @ Buccaneers free pick.
The Saints have run up their 10-3 record and gaudy defensive statistics primarily against sub-.500 teams. They've beaten the 8-5 Buccaneers twice but don't have any other wins against teams with winning records.
Before last week's loss, the Saints had run off nine straight wins against likely non-playoff teams. New Orleans is second in total defense and fourth in points allowed.
The Saints will be taking a big step up in class when quarterback Patrick Mahomes leads the Chiefs into town.
Kansas City is first in the league in total offense and second in points scored. It is 5-1 against teams with winning records and are eighth in the league in scoring defense. Mahomes tops the NFL with 317 passing yards per game and 7.9 yards per attempt.
The Saints are only giving up 209 passing yards per game, but those numbers were against second-division offenses. They'll need to have similar success against the league's top passing offense to compete with the Chiefs.
A healthy Brees would certainly help the Saints' cause, but the Chiefs have been vulnerable against the run. New Orleans is ranked seventh on the ground, while Kansas City is 26th in the league in rushing defense.
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With or without Brees, the Saints will be challenged to stay with the top team in the NFL. However, if the Saints can stay close, the Chiefs have a way of letting teams make a late run.
The numbers still add up to the Chiefs winning and covering the spread.
Take the Chiefs and the under. Kansas City 27, New Orleans 21.
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