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Betting MLB Baseball Underdogs for Value

Betting MLB underdogs is a great strategy if you know where to look.

Key Points

– MLB bettors can take advantage of plus-money underdogs to pad their bankrolls.

– Certain MLB underdogs offer greater betting value than others.

If you are looking for success in betting on Major League Baseball, the place to begin is finding strong moneyline underdogs.

Continually betting MLB favorites, especially big ones, will get you and your bankroll in trouble. Finding MLB underdog betting value is the key to success in betting on baseball.

Why Betting MLB Underdogs Is Profitable

Say you have a series of MLB bets on a given day. You make five bets on five favorites at an average of -150 odds.

You have what you think is a good day, winning three of five bets. That’s great, right? Actually, it’s not because you end up losing money.

What if you had bet on five underdogs? Because you are betting on plus-money dogs, you don’t have to win as often just to break even. When you hit a couple underdogs, it’s much easier to turn a profit.

Take Advantage of Underdogs

MLB underdogs typically win about 44 percent of the time. Most MLB bettors know that in order to break even, assuming -110 odds, one must win 52.4 percent of the time.

Betting at plus-money odds, bettors do not have to win even half the time in order to end up making a profit.

Backing undervalued underdogs is the way to pad a bankroll when betting on MLB. And, there are specific underdogs where bettors can find value.

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Betting MLB Underdogs - Divisional Opponents

In a 162-game MLB season, divisional opponents play each other 19 times. In playing that many games against one team, an opponent gets very familiar. They see some of the same pitchers and know what to expect.

This gives an underdog an advantage. Divisional underdogs win more games against their division opponents than they do when an underdog against a non-division opponent.


The Road Divisional Underdog

Taking it a step further, bettors will often find value with a divisional underdog that is playing on the road. The betting public tends to put too much value in home field advantage.

This is especially true in games with a high total. Oddsmakers are expecting a higher run total meaning the divisional underdog is going to score some runs. This aids when betting MLB underdogs.

What to Look For When Betting MLB Underdogs

Bettors can find value in other underdog situations too. They can look for a couple of key factors to find value in an underdog.

Look for streaks. Any underdogs that have lost three straight, stay away. The same applies to favorites that have won at least three in a row.

Look at the odds. Eliminate underdogs over +150 odds. Underdogs at +150 and below have a better perceived chance of pulling the upset. A +250 underdog is given those odds for a reason.

That’s not to say you couldn’t bet on a +250 underdog based on other research, but underdogs of +150 or less have a better chance of winning.

Outside of that, bettors will look at factors they normally do like starting pitchers, bullpens, ballparks, etc.

In the end, remember it takes fewer underdogs to come through than favorites to have a profitable MLB betting season.