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Super Bowl LIV Predictions: SF 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Super Bowl

The Epic Super Bowl LIV collision between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs takes place this weekend.

It’s the event we’ve all been waiting for. The culmination of a wild year of NFL football. After epic runs, injuries, and heartbreak, we get to see one of the most prolific passing teams in the last decade go up against the No. 1 pass defense in the league.

Who will come out on top? Let’s dig into the meat of these two teams and see if we can’t pick a winner.

The 49ers

I didn’t expect Jimmy G to throw the ball just eight times in their conference championship showdown against the Green Bay Packers. They literally pounded that rock. Only Erick Dickerson has more yards in a playoff game than Raheem Mostert who put up 220 rushing yards against a Top 10 Packers defense. That was way back in 1986 when the Rams beat the Dallas Cowboys. There was another near recordset as well. Jimmy G’s with his eight passes, is the only QB since waaaay back in Super Bowl VIII to have less than 10 passes in a playoff game.

But hey, why pass the ball if you are able to run on 3rd and 8 for 36 yards and a touchdown? The Green Bay Packers struggled to get into the backfield all game long, and for 60 minutes, the San Francisco 49ers chewed the clock away and controlled the game. So, we really have to give a lot of credit to George Kittle, Laken Tomlinson, Mike McGlinchey, and crew for setting up so many holes for Raheem Mostert. We also need to give a lot of credit to Kyle Shanahan for coming up with an excellent game plan and fantastic play calling.

The Chiefs

The Tennessee Titans looked like they were firing on all cylinders. Ryan Tannahill and Derrick Henry we all smiles and they had the lead. Something to note with the Chiefs is they are hands-down the best second-half team in the NFL. You should never count them out of a game … as they have proven time and time again. Another thing of note is the way they shut Henry down in the second half. This is a guy who has been dropping tons of yards on opponents over the last few weeks. 195 against the Ravens, who have one of the best Ds in the league. 182 against the Pats – the best defense in the league. 211 against the Houston Texans … the list goes on. He has been a machine of late. But in the second half, he touched the ball 5 times and was held to -1 yard. Over the course of the game, he got 19 carries for just 69 yards.

Now, this is interesting because I do not think the Chiefs run D is better than the Pats, or the Ravens … or even the Packers. But it all came together for them on the night of the AFC Championship game and they were able to shut henry down and get the comeback win.

The Vegas Odds

Sportsbooks in Las Vegas and online sportsbooks have opened up with the Kansas City Chiefs as favorites of 1.5 points and in the Super Bowl prop bets Mahomes is the favorite to win the MVP award at +120. Why is this? I feel like the 49ers were much more convincing in their victory and on average they score 30.17 points per game to the Chiefs 29.83. The Chiefs pass for more yards, 183.5 to the Niners 221.33, but the Niners are not going to let that kind of passing number go into the stats books; not with their top-rated Pass D. Conversely, the 49ers run the ball on average for 55 yards more per game than the Chiefs. Ok, let’s look at defense. The Niners allow just 18.89 per game to the Chiefs respectable 20.17. They allow 104.71 rushing yards (No. 11) to the Chiefs 123.89 (No. 24) and Just 174.28, which is now No. 2 in the league – after Aaron Rodgers second-half surge– but was No. 1 all season long. The Chiefs give up 227.83 per game through the air (No. 14). Furthermore, KC is 20th in time on field (defense, 24 in no. of plays, and 13 in yards per play. Meanwhile, the Niners are No. 6 in time on field, No. 4 in No. of plays, and No. 2 in yards per play allowed.

I smell a trap with this spread line. I believe the Niners are going to win this one outright. They are simply the more complete team and have a far superior defense.