NFL Free Pick:
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
Either Pittsburgh or Tennessee will fall from the ranks of the unbeaten in Week 7 as the two 5-0 teams finally face each other. They were scheduled to play in Week 4, but the Titans had some issues with the coronavirus that prevented that game from being played.
Tennessee opened as an unbeaten home underdog. How many 5-0 teams have opened as a home dog? Glad you asked because the only one found in the last 13 years was the 2007 Dallas Cowboys. They were 5-0 and 5-point home dogs to New England. That’s the year the Patriots went 16-0 in the regular season.
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How will this one play out?
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers (5-0, 4-1 ATS) at Tennessee Titans (5-0, 2-3 ATS)
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 25, 2020
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Current Line: TEN -1 Total: 50.5
TV Coverage: CBS
With Halloween coming soon, it’s time to reveal the Tennessee Titans. They have been dressed up as an unbeaten team in 2020, but their real identity is much different.
Close Calls
The Titans won their first three games - Denver, Jacksonville, and Minnesota - by a combined six points. Tennessee needed late field goals to beat all three teams, which have a combined record of 4-13 heading into Week 7. They’ve killed a few free football picks ATS.
Tennessee then trounced Buffalo 42-16, but the Titans were the benefactors of three turnovers. That allowed them to start drives at the Bills’ 16-, 12-, and 26-yard lines.
Last week, the Titans survived 1-5 Houston thanks to a missed two-point conversion, a score with four seconds remaining in regulation play, and coin toss win to start overtime.
You Wear a Mask Called Counterfeit
As you take the mask off, you see that the Titans aren’t very good on defense. That’s troubling since head coach Mike Vrabel is a former Patriots linebacker and a former defensive coordinator.
Tennessee’s defense gives up 272.8 passing yards per game (27th). They allow 5.1 yards per carry (30th). Surprisingly, 16 percent of opponent’s runs against the Titans go for 20 yards or more. That’s bad and it ranks dead last in the NFL.
The Titans go up against a Steelers run game that is pretty solid. James Conner ran for 101 yards and a touchdown last week in Pittsburgh’s win over the Browns. Should the Steelers be forced into a bunch of third down situations, they shouldn’t worry. The Titans allow opponents to convert 57.8 percent of third downs. Tennessee has also allowed opponents to score on 14-of-16 red zone trips.
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Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is one of the NFL’s elite defensive units. Last week, the Steelers faced the No. 1 rushing offense in the league - Cleveland. Pittsburgh held the Browns to 75 yards, 113 below their season average.
Pittsburgh also leads the NFL in sacks with 24. That is bad news for Tennessee especially after finding out that Pro Bowl left tackle Taylor Lewan is done for the season with a torn ACL.
The bottom line is this. Pittsburgh is a better football team. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and have beaten Tennessee in five of the last seven meetings between the two teams. With the NFL betting line now swaying in Tennessee’s favor, it’s a great time to back the Steelers.
NFL Free Pick: STEELERS +1