Important Trends To Consider Before Betting On The Kentucky Derby
The most prestigious race on the American calendar takes place on the first weekend of May, as the most talented horses in training line-up to compete in the Kentucky Derby. Like every year, the race will attain worldwide attention, as horse racing gamblers from far and wide try and find the winner in the prestigious race.
There will be a number of important factors to consider before opting for a horse to bet on in the 2021 Kentucky Derby, but what trends should punters be aware of before making their wager?
One of the most important factors that those looking to make a bet on the Derby should assess is the Kentucky Derby leaderboard points that have been accumulated so far this season.
The qualification points format was established back in 2013, and since then, seven of the eight winners of the famous race have achieved at least 100 points going into the Kentucky Derby.
The only exception to that rule came in 2019 as Maximum Security was disqualified, which meant that outsider Country House won the Triple Crown race.
There are currently seven horses that have achieved over 100 points on the road to the Kentucky Derby so far this season, which includes heavy favourite in the betting Essential Quality.
Among the other leading contenders that have accumulated that many points are Super Stock, Like The King and Hot Rod Charlie.
Check out the full list of contenders here:
Winning Prep Run
It goes without saying that reading through the form of the horses involved is essential before placing a bet on any race. Not doing this ensures that gamblers will probably be making an idealess bet, as they don’t have the required information.
When betting on the Kentucky Derby, the importance of having at least one winning prep run is essential. Out of the past 15 winners of the Kentucky Derby, 13 have won on at least one of their last three starts. Only two horses have failed to win a prep before the Triple Crown race.
Furthermore, 60% of the winners have run in a Grade 1 before winning the Kentucky Derby. The field size that the horses are running in also have an impact on their chances judging by the trends, as 13 of the previous winners have had a prep run in a field consisting of between seven and eleven horses.
The latter of those facts could be crucial given that 20 horses will line up for the Kentucky Derby.
That means horses with no experience of running in a race with bigger fields could have a huge disadvantage, as they could become overwhelmed by the challenge at hand.
The betting markets shouldn’t be used as a betting template for gamblers, meaning that the horse at the top of the market isn’t guaranteed to win. The Kentucky Derby is one of the most unpredictable races of the season, and favourites haven’t always won the race.
The favourite in the betting has only won 50% of the last ten Kentucky Derby’s, which means that gamblers shouldn’t be put off outsiders if the research shows that they have a chance.
Stats do show that there have only been two winners out of the last 15 that have been priced over 25/1, but there have been a number of horses above 10/1 that have won the race.
The research is more important than studying the odds, as this will ensure that you have the relevant information to make an educated bet on the winner of the Triple Crown race.
There you have it, the most important things to consider when betting on the upcoming derby. Wage responsibly and enjoy the races!