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AFC Championship Game Betting Preview

The premier matchup of the NFL weekend is the top two seeds in the AFC going at it for a chance in Super Bowl LV. It will be the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs playing host to the second-seeded Buffalo Bills on Sunday at 6:40 pm ET on CBS.

While star quarterback Patrick Mahomes left the Chiefs' divisional round game early to be evaluated for a concussion, all signs point to him being active this Sunday. Thus, the line is on the board with the Chiefs currently listed as a standard three-point home favorite, with the over/under set at 53.5 points.

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AFC Championship Game Betting Preview

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are coming off a 17-3 win over Baltimore, a game that showcased their defense's capabilities. The defense has been considered the weaker unit for Buffalo, and for good reason, as the offense has been elite all year. But the defense shut down the Ravens' vaunted rushing attack and made a game-changing play.

The Bills went up 10-3 after a touchdown to start the second half, and the Ravens proceeded to put together an answering drive, moving the ball 66 yards down the field to the Buffalo nine-yard line.

On third and goal, Lamar Jackson forced one over the middle of the end zone, and Taron Johnson picked it off and returned it 101 yards the other way for a score. The 14-point swing put a bow on the game, with the Bills defense shutting down the Ravens for the rest of the game.

Josh Allen finished with a modest 206 yards and one touchdown, thrown to Stefon Diggs (eight catches, 106 yards).

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AFC Championship Game Betting Preview

Kansas City Chiefs

Top sportsbooks know that the Chiefs took down Cleveland 22-17, with backup Chad Henne closing out the game. Patrick Mahomes took an awkward hit to the neck/head area midway through the third quarter and did not return.

Henne came in and kept the offense afloat, leading one field goal drive and coming up with a massive conversion to ice the game.

On a crucial third and 14, Henne rolled right and scrambled for 13 yards, and at midfield, Andy Reid elected to go for it on fourth down.

Henne completed a two-yard pass to Tyreek Hill to put the game away as the Chiefs advanced to their third straight AFC Championship Game.

Hill and Travis Kelce both had big days for the offense, hauling in eight catches apiece for over 100 yards each.

The Chiefs defense held strong against a legitimate Cleveland offense - limiting the dual threat of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to just 101 rushing yards. Mahomes looks to be fine for this Sunday's game.

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AFC Championship Game Betting Preview

Game Pick

In a rematch of a Week 6 game, which Kansas City won 26-17, I like Buffalo to cover the three points here and advance to its first Super Bowl since 1994.

Allen has emerged as one of the top quarterbacks in the league, and this Buffalo defense has proven it is no weak link but very capable of shutting down offenses.

Kansas City hasn't covered the spread since early November, and with a hobbled Mahomes, my bet's on the Bills +3.